A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. They authors two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has got something to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
